Let me start this by being very clear. I am not a pundit, not a journalist, and not an expert on politics. I’m just a guy who overthinks and pays attention and writes about what I have observed. That being said, I’d like to point out a few observations you may, or may not have noticed.
When all of this “Biden is too old” crap started after the debate, we were repeatedly assured that “many democratic politicians” were calling for Biden to step down, or “raising concerns” about his fitness to lead.
It took a few days, or even a week before we learned that “many” basically equalled five or six memebrs of the House, out of over 200 memebrs all told. (less than 3%).
And then, when that story started to fall apart, because others besides myself can do basic math, and worse still, some (more than half) of those “concerned voices” began walking back their “concerns” after meeting with Biden and seeing him giving speeches and interviews, the press needed some new line to “spin” the narrative.
They seem to have found one, now claiming that “while democrats in Congress may now be backing Biden, many voters are still convinced he is too old” or alternatively, “still concerned”.
As far as I have seen, they are basing this claim on nothing, or at best, one poll. Usually not even citing which poll, so you can’t examine what questions were being asked. Was it a “push poll”, specifically designed to elicit the answers the questioners desired? We don’t know.
So, like so many other wiser voices, I would agree that we shouldn’t place much faith in polls. But what then can we use to measure how well Biden is doing overall, especially with voters (the only folks who actually count)?
That’s where I find something that gives me good hope.
Back in 2012, we saw a perfect example of why we should ignore polls and pundits both. Over and over we were told by these “experts” that the race between Obama and Romney was “too close to call”. Maybe they were right according to the polls, but we all know that they were actually wrong. Wrong as they could be, because Obama trounced Romney in the end.
I was one of the few who refused to buy into the polls, because I had, what I believed, was an “inside scoop”. It wasn’t something I got from any person, or an interesting way of interpreting poll data (like that self-styled ‘expert’ Nate Silver) nope. It was a simple observation anyone could have made.
Obama was keeping pace dollar for dollar with Romney in fund raising.
Doesn’t seem to be a huge “indicator” maybe… until one realizes Romney’s donors were rich old white men, donating millions at a pop. Obama, on the other hand, was relying mainly on small dollar voter donations.
If you’re rasing 10 or 20 mllion from guys who donate a hundred thousand, and the other guy is rasing close to the same (or in some cases even more) from people giving 10 or 20 bucks… which one has the greater number of voters?
Now, let’s look at the claims coming out that “many democratic voters have concerns about Biden’s age”… does that square with the fact that directly after the debate, when everyone was most frightened and most “concerned”, Biden took in record donations? Nearly all small dollar donations from actual voters?
The pundits and the journalist all have a vested interest in keeping up the “horse race narrative” it drives clicks and views. And some of them even have well documented personal and financial reasons to actually support a second Trump presidency.
Those are the very people telling you “most democratic voters still have concerns”.
Who are you going to believe? The guys who want clicks and views and some that actually like Trump, or your own lying eyes?